Inner Brisbane Unit Market - Residual Stock Analysis
February, 2020 – Findings on a residual stock analysis completed on the Inner Brisbane Unit Market
m3property have undertaken an analysis on the Inner Brisbane residential unit market to provide insights into the proportion of residual or unsold unit stock, change in resale prices, and average sales rates for unit projects in Brisbane’s Inner Ring.
Projects with 50+ units.
Projects completed between January 2016 and December 2019.
0 to 5 kilometres from the Brisbane CBD plus the Hamilton Northshore precinct. Projects are categorised as being within the CBD, North of the River and South of the River (to five kilometres from the CBD).
- An estimated 1,500 units remained in the ownership of the project’s developer as at December 2019. This represents 10.6% of total supply completed since January 2016 (noting that some unit sales are currently under contract and yet to settle).
- The proportion of residual stock in the market increased over 2019. We estimate that the residual stock proportion was 8.1% as at December 2018 and 8.9% as at July 2019.
- The CBD has the highest proportion of residual stock. This was heavily impacted by the completion of Brisbane Skytower in 2019.
- The average differential in price between the purchase of a unit at practical completion, or presale, compared to the first re-sale of the same unit after completion, was -3.0% (excludes in-one-line sales). The average resale price increased in the CBD, however, decreased in the North and South of the River precincts.
- There was a higher resale rate for units in the CBD compared with the North and South of River precincts.
- The average time between purchasing a new unit and reselling it was 3.15 years (based on contract date).
- The Inner Brisbane unit market has received considerable negative attention during the past three to four years, with talk of oversupply and discounting being common.
- We expect that the estimated 10.6% of units completed since January 2016 which remain in the ownership of the project’s developer will decline over the coming six months as sales activity strengthens and new supply completions remain relatively subdued. Going forward, we anticipate our analysis of residual stock will become a bellwether on how the residential unit market is performing.
- The proportion of unsold stock by location is heavily impacted by recent building completions. For example, the completion of Brisbane Skytower added over 1,000 units to the CBD in 2019, thus significantly impacting the proportion of unsold stock in the CBD.
- Whilst there are cases of significant discounting between the purchase price of units at practical completion, or presale, compared to the first resale of the same unit after completion, the overall average differential was a more subdued decline of -3.0%, with a number of unit resales showing solid capital growth. We found it was common for units in the CBD and higher quality/prestige developments to experience positive capital growth on resale. The CBD also had a higher proportion of units that were resold compared with the North and South of the River precincts.
- The market is considered to have peaked in 2016 before more stringent lending and borrowing requirements were introduced and overall buyer demand reduced. Units that were resold during 2016 and 2017 showed positive capital growth on average, whereas units that were resold in 2018 and 2019 experienced an overall decline in average values.
- For projects completed since 2016, the average rate of sale was 2.8 units per month. The rate of sale increased for projects completed in 2018 compared with 2017. Sales rates are anticipated to continue increasing, as the low cost of finance and new first-home buyer incentives stimulate purchaser activity.
- The population of the study area (Inner Ring plus Hamilton Northshore) is forecast to increase by circa 31,000 persons between 2019 and 2024 (Source: GapMaps Population Projections), representing stronger growth than State and National forecasts. We expect this will contribute to a forecast reduction in residual stock over the short-term.
Sources: CoreLogic RP Data, GapMaps, m3property Research